Happy New Year and Our Predictions for 2016!

Who can believe that the year 2015 has gone past so quickly, and here we are in 2016! Hope everyone has had a great start to the year and looking forward to keeping their New Years resolutions.

2015 has been an eventful year for the wholesale industry with Booker making another solid acquisition, Bestway nearing the 40 year mark and the likes of Lidl and Aldi continuing to create havoc in the grocery sector with the Big Four continuing to suffer.

So what are our predictions for 2016? Here we go bold and make some predictions for 2016 and so lets see if they come true by the end of the year!

Amazon Finally Arrives

We all know that Amazon has been testing the market in the grocery delivery market and has been stealthily growing its business. But we believe 2016 will see a shift in gear for the retailing behemoth and they will begin to make decent in-roads into the retail grocery market, affecting the big boys and shackling the status quo. They may also start their expansion into the wholesale sector but we see a few years yet until this will happen.

Lidl and Aldi move into Convenience Market

Lidl and Aldi have tested their pilot stores in North London in the convenience store market and we see this taking on a much larger momentum in 2016 with the opening of multiple stores. This will have a knock-on affect on the wholesale market with demand peaking and the more convenience stores being affected too.

Oil Stays Cheap

Cheap oil and hence cheap petrol will mean that deliveries become cheaper and product prices will decrease. This has already happened in 2015 and we see this trend of deflation continuing into 2016.

Consolidation

We see further consolidation in the wholesale market and the food delivered market too. It makes perfect sense – all those delivery vans running around central London – a merger would reduce the vans, traffic congestion and make more efficient deliveries too – Hey presto!

On-Line Ordering

On-line ordering which already has been growing will see explosive growth in 2016, reaching the tipping point as customers see just how much time and energy they can save from ordering online. We expect to see the increase in online sales doubling in 2016.

So there we have it – lets check back at the end of the year to see how close our predictions came!

Our Forecast for 2015

It’s been an interesting year for wholesale and foodservice sector in 2014 with a strong performance and little of the drama that has forsaken the supermarket industry this year.

The year has been one of transition from the traditional cash and carry model to one being dominated by internet and click and collect sales. We see this trend continuing into the next 5 years with steady growth year-on-year.

With internet sales having reached over £1bn this year with big contributions from both Booker and Bestway, the convenience of ordering online is becoming a stable feature for customers. This still only represents 4% of the overall market, and so there is still room for much further growth to be seen in internet sales sector. We forecast the market grow to 10% within the next 10 years.

Mobile apps have also started to emerge with a new app created by Bestway as one of the first apps in this sector. Time will tell as to how popular mobile ordering will become, but we forecast that it will continue to grow as smart phones become a mainstay of the ordering market.

With all this online presence continuing to grow, data will become increasing more important with savvy wholesalers making decisions based on the data that they have in real-time to target new and existing customers with special offers etc. We see the emergence of data as the next big change in wholesale and the wholesalers who can adapt the quickest in the next 5 years, will enjoy the biggest growth.

We also see the market becoming more and more competitive as the discounters enter the convenience store market. With lower prices and a different range of brands, market share will be lost to the discounters which will have an added affect on wholesalers too.

Overall, we see opportunity in 2015 for wholesalers to adapt further to technology through online websites, mobile ordering and employing big data techniques to engage customers and refine their price strategies going forward. Those that can adapt the quickest to changes in the market will have a competitive advantage in the coming years.

We wish you all a Happy New Year and prosperous 2015!

Poundland Sees 12% Rise in Profits – Should you be stocking Value Brands?

Poundland this week reported a 12% rise in profits for the half year to £9.3m, and like-for-like sales were also up 4.7%.  This clearly suggests that shoppers are going for the discount brands, and looking to get their shop as cheap as possible. What impact does this have on the convenience stores in local areas?

Well, for a start, consumers are becoming more price sensitive and so are trying to save money at any suitable opportunity. This puts pressures on the price competition between convenience stores, Sainsbury Local, Tesco Metro etc.  and the discount stores too.

So should the local convenience store be selling more of the low value branded goods, then the branded goods themselves E.g. should a local convenience store sell own label tomato ketchup rather than Heinz ketchup? Or are these customers still going for the branded goods, and are only after the convenience? And with limited shelf space, then the shop owner has to be very picky about the products that they sell too, so the choice is even more important.

It’s very difficult for the local convenience store to compete just on price – any Sainsbury’s Local or Tesco Metro can blow them away on the price, with their enhanced buying power. The main reason why a customer is coming into the convenience store is literally for convenience – if they went to a Tesco Metro then they would have to walk there, try and find the product, walk around the large store, queue up to pay etc, which takes time. To buy something simple like a bottle of tomato ketchup, then it is easier to go to the local convenience store and be in and out in a few minutes.

Hence, as speed is the key, seeing the product the customer wants to buy very quickly is important. Hence, the brand is very important in this regard as the customer can identify with the brand quickly and easily, and make a choice easily.

Thus, for this reason we recommend that the convenience stores continue to stock the popular brands and stock own label products for non-key items e.g. custard cream biscuits.  A focus on the gross margins of the products and the convenience aspect will ensure that convenience stores will continue to flourish and be a central point for the local community for the foreseeable future.

Scotland Voted ‘No’ to Independence, what is the Impact on Wholesale Prices?

It was a big day for the UK on Friday morning, with the results of the Scottish Referendum. With Scotland voting ‘No’ on leaving the UK, it was one of the biggest days in the last 300 years in the history of the United Kingdom, and not to be repeated for a long time too!

So how does this affect wholesales prices of your food and drink items, I hear you ask? Well, we can look at it both in terms of a ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ to Scottish Independence and see what the affect’s on the wholesale prices would have been.

Today, all trade freely moves between England and Scotland in the UK. The big wholesalers have their headquarters in England, and run their Scottish stores usually as a subsidiary of their UK branch and so the stores are just treated exactly the same as the English stores with the same products, similar prices and the same distribution network.

However, if Scotland had decided to go independent, there would be a new border created between England and Scotland, with a new currency too, as the pound most likely would not have been allowed to continue as a currency in Scotland. This would have had a large implication on the prices charged to customers and the transfer of goods between the two countries.

Prices would be open to a foreign exchange rate, and we forecast that prices would have increased in relation to those in the UK, with the exchange rate fluctuating with the new independent status of the country. Additionally, transferring stocks to the ‘new Scotland’ would have incurred further charges with import duties going up, especially for Tobacco and Alcohol as the ‘new Scotland’ tries to raise funds to support their new independent country.

Additionally, the cost of distribution may be affected too. As Scotland is a separate country, they would be able to choose which taxes to apply to petrol prices in the country, making distribution to stores more expensive if petrol prices were to rise with the higher taxes.

All in all, it was a beneficial result for all wholesale businesses up and down the country that Scotland did not vote ‘Yes’ to independence and with this uncertainty removed, small businesses can now get back to working on improving their own sales, profitability and growth – the real issues that they face today, rather an issues brought about through decisions outside of their control.

ITP Analytics Launch

After many months of research, programming and data gathering, we launched the Improve That Price Analytics online reports. The report provides users with live data on the Foodservice Wholesale and Cash & Cary market. These reports can be viewed by category, brand or type. The data can also be filtered to show only the Price Marked, Promotions or the Multi-buys. The site also features the price history of products, is very user friendly and you can have a two weeks free trial at  improvethatprice.com/analytics. For further information email Faisal on faisal@improvethatprice.com.

Improve That Price Analytics

This week, after many months of research, programming and data gathering, we are launching the Improve That Price Analytics online reports.

The report provides users with live data on the Foodservice Wholesale and Cash & Cary market. These reports can be viewed by category, brand or type. The data can also be filtered to show only the Price Marked, Promotions or the Multi-buys.

The site also features the price history of products, is very user friendly and you can have a two weeks free trial at  improvethatprice.com/analytics.

If further information is required then please email Faisal on faisal@improvethatprice.com.

 

Improve That Price, in short.

Improve That Price was launched in January 2012.

It has three directors and the current team consists of five people split into programming, marketing, finance, data management and public relations.

There are 17,128 listed products and  this number is increasing daily.

On average users can save approximately 7%.

Improve That Price will shortly be launching its Analytics tool giving live price updates on all drink products helping the food service industry and manufactures understand pricing strategies of their customers.

Users can now track their favourite products and receive email alerts whenever the price drops.

Users can also leave a review for suppliers helping others users decide who to order from.

There is currently no other price comparison site for the catering industry.

There have been several articles written about Improve That Price http://improvethatprice.com/press.php.